Why AEW Probably Won’t Be Considered By Several Top Networks

2024 will include some big television deals in the pro wrestling world. Both WWE and AEW are working hard to secure new deals, and WWE has already brought 2/3 of their contracts to a close. That brings a lot of unanswered questions, and speculation abounds.

The Wrestling Observer Newsletter noted that AEW’s economic strategy hinges on securing a significant rights fee increase in 2025 to achieve profitability. The potential question revolves around whether this increase would come from WBD or another source, and this may be a considerable challenge.

When considering high-profile networks, the possibilities are constrained, with Showtime being a less viable option due to its reduced household reach and its recent departure from the MMA, boxing, and sports divisions.

TBS and TNT emerge as the most robust candidates for AEW’s show, besides ESPN, which, while an enhancement, faces challenges due to its crowded sports schedule. Despite AEW’s popularity, ESPN’s lack of discussions for RAW raises questions about AEW’s chances with ESPN. It was also noted that no alternatives match ESPN, potentially including FOX or the ION Network, although the latter’s past wrestling ventures were short-lived.

The landscape has changed since late 2021, and early 2022, when considering FOX and WWE. With both companies taking different paths, it’s doubtful that FOX would want to get into bed with AEW. An insightful comparison in the WON between Smackdown on network and cable revealed potential challenges, with Smackdown on FS1 reflecting a substantial drop compared to network TV. If AEW were to secure a similar time slot, it could face a challenging transition.

AEW would be home free financially and FOX’s bottom line would be far better with even a $125 million deal for the one show, and Rampage and Collision would be effective on FS 1 for additional stronger than usual weekly programming. In addition, Dynamite draws an audience that earns 28 percent more money than the Smackdown audience, which is a huge difference because of Smackdown’s issues with ad rates. But FOX isn’t spending as big on streaming on ESPN and WBD and doesn’t have the in-house PPV component. But would FOX want to go with the No. 2 brand, have the stigma of lower ratings and get back into wrestling right now? I’m guessing no.

AEW doesn’t really fit on Discovery, and that’s the WBD family. Outside of WBD, ESPN and FOX, the other potential stations like FX, FS 1 or ESPN 2 do roughly one third of what TNT does on average (TNT’s average is boosted by the NBA) and less than half of what TBS does. Besides needing a rights increase or the long-term financial goals for the company wouldn’t be met, a station move would also lower exposure, similar to what happened to TNA when it lost Spike and the ratings on the new station went way down as did company overall popularity. AEW would likely continue, but would have to restructure in some form based on rights fees unless the new station was willing to pay at least 19 to 30 percent more than AEW’s expected 2024 deal with WBD for it to be profitable, and it could be slightly above that if it’s not FOX or ESPN to make up for some likely declines on another station due to lesser exposure.

The television landscape could change in a big way in 2024. WWE has already announced that SmackDown is moving to The USA Network and NXT is venturing to The CW in October 2024. Only time will tell where AEW programming lands.

With Warner Brothers Discovery being real contenders to secure WWE RAW’s upcoming television deal, anything is on the table. That deal may also push AEW out of their deal with WBD, a place that Tony Khan is seemingly happy with by all accounts.

What’s your take on the pro wrestling world’s television rights situation in 2024? Let us know what you think in the comments section!